Todd Gurley
RB, Georgia · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #10 (STL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 88 of ~96 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2020 (~92%). Last NFL season: 2020.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #8 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#10).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Georgia: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.52 40-yard dash at 222 lbs: faster than 53% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 88 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 3 |
| First-team All-Pro | 2 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 54 |
| Rushing | 1460 att, 6,082 yds, 67 TD |
| Receiving | 243 rec, 2,254 yds, 12 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2020 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 222 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.52 s |
| Bench press | 17 reps |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #8 overall (#1 RB) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 7 | Kevin White | redraft #169 |
| 8 | Vic Beasley | redraft #54 |
| 9 | Ereck Flowers | redraft #46 |
| 11 | Trae Waynes | redraft #84 |
| 12 | Danny Shelton | redraft #52 |
| 13 | Andrus Peat | redraft #20 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.