Timmy Jernigan
DT, Florida St. · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #48 (BAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #39 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#48).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Florida St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.06 40-yard dash at 299 lbs: faster than 25% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 76 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2020 (~68%). Last NFL season: 2020.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 76 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 25 |
| Defense | 70 tackles, 17.5 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2020 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 299 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.06 s |
| Bench press | 27 reps |
| Vertical | 29.5" |
| Broad jump | 102" |
| Shuttle | 4.83 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.5" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #39 overall (#3 DT) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 45 | Paul Richardson | redraft #98 |
| 46 | Stephon Tuitt | redraft #37 |
| 47 | Trent Murphy | redraft #49 |
| 49 | Jace Amaro | redraft #161 |
| 50 | Jeremiah Attaochu | redraft #93 |
| 51 | Ego Ferguson | redraft #179 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.