Thomas Tapeh
FB, Minnesota · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #162 (PHI)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 41 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2008 (~51%). Last NFL season: 2008.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #162 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#162).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Minnesota: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.80 40-yard dash at 245 lbs: faster than 4% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
FB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 41 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Rushing | 22 att, 69 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 27 rec, 157 yds, 1 TD |
| Defense | 6 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2008 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 245 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.80 s |
| Bench press | 23 reps |
| Vertical | 32.5" |
| Broad jump | 114" |
| 3-cone | 7.65 s |
| Shuttle | 4.52 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #162 overall (#2 FB) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 159 | Sean Bubin | redraft #231 |
| 160 | Tony Bua | redraft #190 |
| 161 | Amon Gordon | redraft #150 |
| 163 | Drew Carter | redraft #120 |
| 164 | P.K. Sam | redraft #220 |
| 165 | Robert Reynolds | redraft #167 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.