Thomas Davis
LB, Georgia · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #14 (CAR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #24 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#14).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Georgia: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.60 40-yard dash at 230 lbs: faster than 67% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 199 of ~256 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2020 (~78%). Last NFL season: 2020.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 199 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 12 |
| Pro Bowls | 3 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 80 |
| Defense | 859 tackles, 29 sacks, 13 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2020 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 230 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.60 s |
| Vertical | 36.5" |
| Broad jump | 115" |
| 3-cone | 7.09 s |
| Shuttle | 3.97 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #24 overall (#1 LB) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 11 | DeMarcus Ware | redraft #3 |
| 12 | Shawne Merriman | redraft #39 |
| 13 | Jammal Brown | redraft #24 |
| 15 | Derrick Johnson | redraft #7 |
| 16 | Travis Johnson | redraft #93 |
| 17 | David Pollack | redraft #156 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.