Terrell Burgess
S, Utah · 2020 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #104 (LAR)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 58 of ~101 possible regular-season games from 2020 through 2025 (~57%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #75 (#7 at his position), close to where he went (#104).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Utah: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.46 40-yard dash at 202 lbs: faster than 61% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
S (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 65 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 4 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.7 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 4.7 |
| Defense | 52 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2020 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2020 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 202 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.46 s |
| Bench press | 20 reps |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 122" |
| Arm / hand | 29.25" / 9.38" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #75 overall (#7 S) |
Picked around him 2020 redraft
| 101 | Dalton Keene | redraft #233 |
| 102 | Alex Highsmith | redraft #22 |
| 103 | Davion Taylor | redraft #180 |
| 105 | Adam Trautman | redraft #107 |
| 106 | Tyre Phillips | redraft #115 |
| 107 | Akeem Davis-Gaither | redraft #88 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.