Tarell Brown
DB, Texas · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #147 (SFO)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #93 overall (#13 at his position), but he lasted until pick #147: teams let him slide 54 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Texas: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.45 40-yard dash at 190 lbs: faster than 65% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 117 of ~144 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2015 (~81%). Last NFL season: 2015.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 117 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 24 |
| Defense | 272 tackles, 0 sacks, 11 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 190 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.45 s |
| Bench press | 17 reps |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 111" |
| 3-cone | 7 s |
| Shuttle | 4.37 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #93 overall (#13 DB) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 144 | Brandon Harrison | redraft #173 |
| 145 | David Jones | redraft #142 |
| 146 | Aundrae Allison | redraft #158 |
| 148 | Kolby Smith | redraft #151 |
| 149 | Uche Nwaneri | redraft #38 |
| 150 | Josh Gattis | redraft #219 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.