Tanner Vallejo
LB, Boise St. · 2017 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #195 (BUF)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #255 (#15 at his position); he went #195, 60 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Boise St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.67 40-yard dash at 228 lbs: faster than 42% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 82 of ~98 possible regular-season games from 2017 through 2022 (~84%). Last NFL season: 2022.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 82 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 7 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 7.0 |
| Defense | 75 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2017 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2017 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 228 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.67 s |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 121" |
| Shuttle | 4.39 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #255 overall (#15 LB) |
Picked around him 2017 redraft
| 192 | Alex Armah | redraft #204 |
| 193 | Jordan Evans | redraft #126 |
| 194 | Vincent Taylor | redraft #159 |
| 196 | Al-Quadin Muhammad | redraft #87 |
| 197 | Jeremy Clark | redraft #221 |
| 198 | D.J. Jones | redraft #29 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.