Tandon Doss
WR, Indiana · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #123 (BAL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #63 overall (#8 at his position), but he lasted until pick #123: teams let him slide 60 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Indiana: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.62 40-yard dash at 201 lbs: faster than 5% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 35 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2013 (~73%). Last NFL season: 2013.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 35 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 4 |
| Receiving | 26 rec, 428 yds, 1 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2013 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 201 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.62 s |
| Bench press | 14 reps |
| Arm / hand | 31.2" / 10.1" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #63 overall (#8 WR) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 120 | Alex Henery | redraft #116 |
| 121 | Chris Prosinski | redraft #109 |
| 122 | Chris Hairston | redraft #82 |
| 124 | Owen Marecic | redraft #208 |
| 125 | Taiwan Jones | redraft #164 |
| 126 | Bilal Powell | redraft #58 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.