Steve Smith
WR, USC · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #51 (NYG)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #40 (#7 at his position), close to where he went (#51).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
USC: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.44 40-yard dash at 197 lbs: faster than 61% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 64 of ~96 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2012 (~67%). Last NFL season: 2012.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 64 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 23 |
| Receiving | 245 rec, 2,641 yds, 12 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2012 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 197 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.44 s |
| Vertical | 38" |
| Broad jump | 120" |
| 3-cone | 6.68 s |
| Shuttle | 4.19 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #40 overall (#7 WR) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 48 | Justin Durant | redraft #39 |
| 49 | Kenny Irons | redraft #227 |
| 50 | Chris Henry | redraft #196 |
| 52 | Brian Leonard | redraft #110 |
| 53 | Eric Wright | redraft #50 |
| 54 | Turk McBride | redraft #100 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.