Steve Breaston
WR, Michigan · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #142 (ARI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 86 of ~96 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2012 (~90%). Last NFL season: 2012.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #185 (#22 at his position); he went #142, 43 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Michigan: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.46 40-yard dash at 193 lbs: faster than 53% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 86 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 26 |
| Passing | 1/2, 17 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 10 att, 120 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 255 rec, 3,387 yds, 9 TD |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2012 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 193 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.46 s |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Broad jump | 124" |
| 3-cone | 6.9 s |
| Shuttle | 4.29 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #185 overall (#22 WR) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 139 | Dustin Fry | redraft #218 |
| 140 | Brandon McDonald | redraft #89 |
| 141 | Greg Peterson | redraft #175 |
| 143 | Dallas Sartz | redraft #233 |
| 144 | Brandon Harrison | redraft #173 |
| 145 | David Jones | redraft #142 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.