Stephen Sullivan
TE, LSU · 2020 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #251 (SEA)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 30 of ~84 possible regular-season games from 2020 through 2024 (~36%). Last NFL season: 2024.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #192 overall (#12 at his position), but he lasted until pick #251: teams let him slide 59 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
LSU: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.66 40-yard dash at 248 lbs: faster than 69% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 30 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 1.0 |
| Receiving | 14 rec, 171 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 3 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2020 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2020 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 248 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.66 s |
| Vertical | 36.5" |
| Broad jump | 123" |
| 3-cone | 7.51 s |
| Shuttle | 4.62 s |
| Arm / hand | 35.88" / 10.13" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #192 overall (#12 TE) |
Picked around him 2020 redraft
| 248 | Sam Sloman | redraft #232 |
| 249 | Brian Cole II | redraft #255 |
| 250 | Tremayne Anchrum | redraft #193 |
| 252 | Tyrie Cleveland | redraft #227 |
| 253 | Kyle Hinton | redraft #175 |
| 254 | Derrek Tuszka | redraft #186 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.