Stephen Hill
WR, Georgia Tech · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #43 (NYJ)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #27 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#43).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Georgia Tech: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.36 40-yard dash at 215 lbs: faster than 87% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 23 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2013 (~72%). Last NFL season: 2013.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 23 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 4 |
| Receiving | 45 rec, 594 yds, 4 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2013 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 215 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.36 s |
| Bench press | 14 reps |
| Vertical | 39.5" |
| Broad jump | 133" |
| 3-cone | 6.88 s |
| Shuttle | 4.48 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.3" / 9.3" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #27 overall (#3 WR) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 40 | Amini Silatolu | redraft #84 |
| 41 | Cordy Glenn | redraft #49 |
| 42 | Jonathan Martin | redraft #99 |
| 44 | Jeff Allen | redraft #65 |
| 45 | Alshon Jeffery | redraft #33 |
| 46 | Mychal Kendricks | redraft #48 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.