Stephen Burton
WR, Long Beach CC · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #236 (MIN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 19 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2013 (~40%). Last NFL season: 2013.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #252 (#32 at his position), close to where he went (#236).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Long Beach CC: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.50 40-yard dash at 221 lbs: faster than 37% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 19 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Rushing | 1 att, -9 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 15 rec, 149 yds, 1 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2013 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 221 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.50 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| Vertical | 34.5" |
| Broad jump | 117" |
| 3-cone | 7.04 s |
| Shuttle | 4.31 s |
| Arm / hand | 32" / 9.1" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #252 overall (#32 WR) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 233 | Lawrence Guy | redraft #21 |
| 234 | Andrew Gachkar | redraft #115 |
| 235 | Jimmy Wilson | redraft #96 |
| 237 | Greg Lloyd | redraft #229 |
| 238 | Daniel Hardy | redraft #249 |
| 239 | Michael Person | redraft #68 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.