Spencer Larsen
LB, Arizona · 2008 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #183 (DEN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, position. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #144 overall (#7 at his position), but he lasted until pick #183: teams let him slide 39 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Arizona: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.85 40-yard dash at 238 lbs: faster than 6% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 63 of ~96 possible regular-season games from 2008 through 2013 (~66%). Last NFL season: 2013.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 63 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 5 |
| Rushing | 17 att, 62 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 14 rec, 127 yds, 1 TD |
| Defense | 36 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2013 |
The 2008 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2008 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 238 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.85 s |
| Bench press | 27 reps |
| Vertical | 28.5" |
| Broad jump | 113" |
| 3-cone | 7.68 s |
| Shuttle | 4.55 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #144 overall (#7 LB) |
Picked around him 2008 redraft
| 180 | Kareem Moore | redraft #134 |
| 181 | Nick Hayden | redraft #71 |
| 182 | Kevin Robinson | redraft #205 |
| 184 | Mike Gibson | redraft #149 |
| 185 | Chris Harrington | redraft #212 |
| 186 | Colt Brennan | redraft #237 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.