Spencer Brown
OL, Northern Iowa · 2021 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #93 (BUF)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
OL (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 73 of ~85 possible regular-season games from 2021 through 2025 (~86%). Plus 6 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #77 (#9 at his position), close to where he went (#93). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Northern Iowa: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
No NFL Combine invite on record (nflverse combine data), so teams had less verified testing on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 49% of the time (905 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 79 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 38 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.4 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 40.4 |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Combine No Combine invite | 49.0% n=905 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 8", 311 lbs |
| Arm / hand | 34.75" / 10.25" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #77 overall (#9 OL) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 90 | Patrick Jones II | redraft #113 |
| 91 | Anthony Schwartz | redraft #179 |
| 92 | Monty Rice | redraft #131 |
| 94 | Ben Cleveland | redraft #136 |
| 95 | Robert Hainsey | redraft #43 |
| 96 | Ronnie Perkins | redraft #223 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.