Skylar Thompson
QB, Kansas St. · 2022 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #247 (MIA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
The 2022 class is only 4 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #235 (#8 at his position), close to where he went (#247).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
25 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Kansas St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.91 40-yard dash at 217 lbs: faster than 23% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 10 of ~51 possible regular-season games from 2022 through 2024 (~20%). Last NFL season: 2024.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 10 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 3 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 3.0 |
| Passing | 81/138, 721 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT |
| Rushing | 15 att, 25 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2022 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2022 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 217 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.91 s |
| Vertical | 31" |
| Broad jump | 112" |
| 3-cone | 7 s |
| Shuttle | 4.28 s |
| Age at draft | 25 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #235 overall (#8 QB) |
Picked around him 2022 redraft
| 244 | Christian Matthew | redraft #199 |
| 245 | Andrew Stueber | redraft #234 |
| 246 | Dawson Deaton | redraft #260 |
| 248 | Andre Anthony | redraft #261 |
| 249 | Rasheed Walker | redraft #16 |
| 250 | Brittain Brown | redraft #248 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.