Siran Neal
CB, Jacksonville St. · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #154 (BUF)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age. Details below.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #182 (#25 at his position), close to where he went (#154).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Jacksonville St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.56 40-yard dash at 199 lbs: faster than 21% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
CB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 130 of ~133 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2025 (~98%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 137 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 7 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.3 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 7.3 |
| Receiving | 1 rec, 13 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 105 tackles, 1 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 199 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.56 s |
| Bench press | 17 reps |
| Vertical | 40.5" |
| Broad jump | 122" |
| 3-cone | 7 s |
| Shuttle | 4.28 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.13" / 9.88" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #182 overall (#25 CB) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 151 | Davontae Harris | redraft #178 |
| 152 | Dane Cruikshank | redraft #180 |
| 153 | Tyrell Crosby | redraft #134 |
| 155 | Scott Quessenberry | redraft #123 |
| 156 | Troy Fumagalli | redraft #211 |
| 157 | Tyler Conklin | redraft #90 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.