Shane Olivea
T, Ohio St. · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #209 (SDG)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
T (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 60 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2007 (~94%). Last NFL season: 2007.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #178 (#14 at his position), close to where he went (#209). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Ohio St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.29 40-yard dash at 302 lbs: faster than 31% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 60 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 31 |
| Last NFL season | 2007 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 302 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.29 s |
| Vertical | 29" |
| Broad jump | 92" |
| 3-cone | 8.25 s |
| Shuttle | 4.71 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #178 overall (#14 T) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 206 | Mark Jones | redraft #197 |
| 207 | Dylan McFarland | redraft #213 |
| 208 | Adimchinobe Echemandu | redraft #194 |
| 210 | Raheem Orr | redraft #222 |
| 211 | Sloan Thomas | redraft #226 |
| 212 | Eric Taylor | redraft #227 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.