Shamar Stephen
DT, Connecticut · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #220 (MIN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #107 overall (#10 at his position), but he lasted until pick #220: teams let him slide 113 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 115 of ~129 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2021 (~89%). Last NFL season: 2021.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Connecticut: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.25 40-yard dash at 309 lbs: faster than 6% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 115 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 32 |
| Defense | 99 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 309 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.25 s |
| Bench press | 25 reps |
| Vertical | 30.5" |
| Broad jump | 103" |
| Arm / hand | 33.1" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #107 overall (#10 DT) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 217 | Ted Bolser | redraft #244 |
| 218 | Michael Campanaro | redraft #154 |
| 219 | T.J. Carrie | redraft #78 |
| 221 | Randell Johnson | redraft #182 |
| 222 | Storm Johnson | redraft #217 |
| 223 | Brandon Watts | redraft #201 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.