Sean Renfree
QB, Duke · 2013 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #249 (ATL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 2 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2013 through 2015 (~4%). Last NFL season: 2015.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #206 overall (#11 at his position), but he lasted until pick #249: teams let him slide 43 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Duke: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.76 40-yard dash at 219 lbs: faster than 61% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 2 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Passing | 3/7, 11 yds, undefined TD, 1 INT |
| Rushing | 1 att, -4 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 219 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.76 s |
| Arm / hand | 32" / 9" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #206 overall (#11 QB) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 246 | Carter Bykowski | redraft #253 |
| 247 | Marc Anthony | redraft #254 |
| 248 | Daimion Stafford | redraft #138 |
| 250 | Don Jones | redraft #186 |
| 251 | T.J. Johnson | redraft #152 |
| 252 | Marcus Cooper | redraft #101 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.