Sean McHugh
FB, Penn St. · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #241 (TEN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #342 (#9 at his position); he went #241, 101 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Penn St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.92 40-yard dash at 264 lbs: faster than 1% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
FB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 40 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2008 (~50%). Last NFL season: 2008.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 40 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Receiving | 23 rec, 301 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2008 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 264 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.92 s |
| Bench press | 18 reps |
| Vertical | 29" |
| Broad jump | 115" |
| 3-cone | 7.36 s |
| Shuttle | 4.09 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #342 overall (#9 FB) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 238 | Larry Turner | redraft #177 |
| 239 | Eugene Amano | redraft #62 |
| 240 | Colby Bockwoldt | redraft #102 |
| 242 | Bruce Perry | redraft #211 |
| 243 | Dominic Furio | redraft #249 |
| 244 | Derek Abney | redraft #250 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.