Sam Roberts
DE, NW Missouri St. · 2022 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #200 (NWE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, availability. Details below.
The 2022 class is only 4 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 20 of ~68 possible regular-season games from 2022 through 2025 (~29%).
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- School
NW Missouri St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
No NFL Combine invite on record (nflverse combine data), so teams had less verified testing on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 49% of the time (905 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 20 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 2.0 |
| Defense | 9 tackles, 1 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2025 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2022 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2022 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Combine No Combine invite | 49.0% n=905 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 292 lbs |
| Age at draft | 24 |
Picked around him 2022 redraft
| 197 | Gregory Junior | redraft #227 |
| 198 | Grant Calcaterra | redraft #155 |
| 199 | Cade Mays | redraft #107 |
| 201 | Keaontay Ingram | redraft #198 |
| 202 | Michael Woods II | redraft #242 |
| 203 | Trestan Ebner | redraft #241 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.