Ryan Mathews
RB, Fresno St. · 2010 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #12 (SDG)
Why he went too high Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a risk: his profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #26 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#12).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Fresno St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.37 40-yard dash at 218 lbs: faster than 95% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 86 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2010 through 2016 (~77%). Last NFL season: 2016.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 86 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 44 |
| Rushing | 1184 att, 5,261 yds, 37 TD |
| Receiving | 179 rec, 1,371 yds, 3 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 218 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.37 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| Vertical | 36" |
| Broad jump | 121" |
| 3-cone | 7 s |
| Shuttle | 4.33 s |
| Arm / hand | 31" / 9.25" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #26 overall (#2 RB) |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 9 | C.J. Spiller | redraft #47 |
| 10 | Tyson Alualu | redraft #33 |
| 11 | Anthony Davis | redraft #53 |
| 13 | Brandon Graham | redraft #23 |
| 14 | Earl Thomas | redraft #5 |
| 15 | Jason Pierre-Paul | redraft #8 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.