Ryan Lindley
QB, San Diego St. · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #185 (ARI)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, position, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #244 (#10 at his position); he went #185, 59 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 10 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2015 (~16%). Last NFL season: 2015.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
San Diego St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.86 40-yard dash at 229 lbs: faster than 34% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 10 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | -4 |
| Passing | 140/274, 1,372 yds, 3 TD, 11 INT |
| Rushing | 4 att, 7 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 229 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.86 s |
| Vertical | 29.5" |
| Broad jump | 108" |
| 3-cone | 7.52 s |
| Shuttle | 4.45 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.5" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #244 overall (#10 QB) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 182 | Cyrus Gray | redraft #185 |
| 183 | B.J. Cunningham | redraft #226 |
| 184 | Isaiah Frey | redraft #162 |
| 186 | James Hanna | redraft #160 |
| 187 | Josh Bush | redraft #168 |
| 188 | Danny Trevathan | redraft #36 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.