Ryan Hayes
OL, Michigan · 2023 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #238 (MIA)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Availability
Played 1 of ~34 possible regular-season games from 2023 through 2024 (~3%). Last NFL season: 2024.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #201 overall (#16 at his position), but he lasted until pick #238: teams let him slide 37 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Michigan: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.18 40-yard dash at 298 lbs: faster than 58% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
OL (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 1 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 0.0 |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 298 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.18 s |
| Vertical | 30" |
| Broad jump | 103" |
| 3-cone | 7.39 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.5" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #201 overall (#16 OL) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 235 | Lew Nichols | redraft #224 |
| 236 | Jake Witt | redraft #257 |
| 237 | Kenny McIntosh | redraft #205 |
| 239 | Max Duggan | redraft #258 |
| 240 | Derek Parish | redraft #259 |
| 241 | Cory Trice | redraft #217 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.