Ryan Connelly
LB, Wisconsin · 2019 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #143 (NYG)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #202 (#11 at his position); he went #143, 59 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 32 of ~83 possible regular-season games from 2019 through 2023 (~39%). Last NFL season: 2023.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Wisconsin: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.66 40-yard dash at 242 lbs: faster than 46% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 32 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 4 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 4.0 |
| Defense | 19 tackles, 1 sacks, 2 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2019 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2019 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 242 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.66 s |
| Vertical | 34.5" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| 3-cone | 7.09 s |
| Shuttle | 4.31 s |
| Arm / hand | 30.88" / 9.38" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #202 overall (#11 LB) |
Picked around him 2019 redraft
| 140 | Ryquell Armstead | redraft #185 |
| 141 | Zach Gentry | redraft #177 |
| 142 | Ben Burr-Kirven | redraft #179 |
| 144 | Marvell Tell III | redraft #196 |
| 145 | Matt Gay | redraft #81 |
| 146 | Amani Oruwariye | redraft #109 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.