Roy Williams
WR, Texas · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #7 (DET)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #6 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#7).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Texas: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.48 40-yard dash at 212 lbs: faster than 44% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 115 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2011 (~90%). Last NFL season: 2011.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 115 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 42 |
| Passing | undefined/1, 0 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 6 att, 17 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 393 rec, 5,715 yds, 44 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2011 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 212 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.48 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #6 overall (#2 WR) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 4 | Philip Rivers | redraft #1 |
| 5 | Sean Taylor | redraft #55 |
| 6 | Kellen Winslow | redraft #42 |
| 8 | DeAngelo Hall | redraft #15 |
| 9 | Reggie Williams | redraft #76 |
| 10 | Dunta Robinson | redraft #34 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.