Robert Ayers
DE, Tennessee · 2009 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #18 (DEN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age. Details below.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #15 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#18).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Tennessee: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.77 40-yard dash at 272 lbs: faster than 74% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 120 of ~144 possible regular-season games from 2009 through 2017 (~83%). Last NFL season: 2017.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 120 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 27 |
| Defense | 192 tackles, 34.5 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2017 |
The 2009 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2009 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 272 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.77 s |
| Bench press | 18 reps |
| Vertical | 29.5" |
| Broad jump | 102" |
| 3-cone | 7.56 s |
| Shuttle | 4.51 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #15 overall (#4 DE) |
Picked around him 2009 redraft
| 15 | Brian Cushing | redraft #15 |
| 16 | Larry English | redraft #124 |
| 17 | Josh Freeman | redraft #36 |
| 19 | Jeremy Maclin | redraft #20 |
| 20 | Brandon Pettigrew | redraft #71 |
| 21 | Alex Mack | redraft #2 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.