Rhett Ellison
RB, USC · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #128 (MIN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 113 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2019 (~88%). Last NFL season: 2019.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #162 (#1 at his position); he went #128, 34 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
USC: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.78 40-yard dash at 251 lbs: faster than 5% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 113 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 9 |
| Rushing | 1 att, 1 yds, 1 TD |
| Receiving | 118 rec, 1,189 yds, 7 TD |
| Defense | 17 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 251 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.78 s |
| Vertical | 31.5" |
| Broad jump | 109" |
| Arm / hand | 32.6" / 10.2" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #162 overall (#1 RB) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 125 | Ronnell Lewis | redraft #197 |
| 126 | Jared Crick | redraft #63 |
| 127 | Adrien Robinson | redraft #206 |
| 129 | Miles Burris | redraft #96 |
| 130 | Christian Thompson | redraft #213 |
| 131 | Brandon Mosley | redraft #177 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.