Rex Hadnot
G, Houston · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #174 (MIA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
G (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 129 of ~144 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2012 (~90%). Last NFL season: 2012.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #186 (#10 at his position), close to where he went (#174). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Houston: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.50 40-yard dash at 323 lbs: faster than 4% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 129 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 35 |
| Last NFL season | 2012 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 323 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.50 s |
| Bench press | 27 reps |
| Vertical | 24.5" |
| Broad jump | 91" |
| 3-cone | 7.94 s |
| Shuttle | 4.66 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #186 overall (#10 G) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 171 | Triandos Luke | redraft #202 |
| 172 | Kelly Butler | redraft #122 |
| 173 | Von Hutchins | redraft #140 |
| 175 | Jammal Lord | redraft #225 |
| 176 | Kirk Chambers | redraft #115 |
| 177 | Bo Lacy | redraft #234 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.