Rashard Higgins
WR, Colorado St. · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #172 (CLE)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #140 overall (#17 at his position), but he lasted until pick #172: teams let him slide 32 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Colorado St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.64 40-yard dash at 196 lbs: faster than 4% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 85 of ~114 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2022 (~75%). Last NFL season: 2022.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 85 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 13 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 13.0 |
| Rushing | 1 att, 4 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 137 rec, 1,890 yds, 12 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 196 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.64 s |
| Bench press | 13 reps |
| Vertical | 32" |
| Broad jump | 116" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #140 overall (#17 WR) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 169 | Antwione Williams | redraft #187 |
| 170 | Cole Toner | redraft #198 |
| 171 | Alex Collins | redraft #96 |
| 173 | Trey Caldwell | redraft #233 |
| 174 | Fahn Cooper | redraft #238 |
| 175 | Jatavis Brown | redraft #100 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.