Quincy Black
LB, New Mexico · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #68 (TAM)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position. Details below.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #97 (#8 at his position), close to where he went (#68).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
New Mexico: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.42 40-yard dash at 240 lbs: faster than 98% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 81 of ~96 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2012 (~84%). Last NFL season: 2012.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 81 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 18 |
| Defense | 226 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 3 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2012 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 240 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.42 s |
| Bench press | 24 reps |
| Vertical | 41.5" |
| Broad jump | 124" |
| 3-cone | 6.86 s |
| Shuttle | 4.34 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #97 overall (#8 LB) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 65 | Quentin Moses | redraft #145 |
| 66 | Usama Young | redraft #81 |
| 67 | James Marten | redraft #224 |
| 69 | Buster Davis | redraft #185 |
| 70 | Ryan Harris | redraft #45 |
| 71 | Lorenzo Booker | redraft #153 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.