Peyton Hillis
FB, Arkansas · 2008 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #227 (DEN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- School
Arkansas: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.64 40-yard dash at 240 lbs: faster than 17% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
FB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 81 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2008 through 2014 (~72%). Last NFL season: 2014.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 81 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 21 |
| Passing | 1/3, 13 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 696 att, 2,832 yds, 23 TD |
| Receiving | 134 rec, 1,050 yds, 3 TD |
| Defense | 10 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2008 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2008 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 240 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.64 s |
| Bench press | 26 reps |
| Vertical | 30.5" |
| Broad jump | 117" |
| 3-cone | 7.15 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
Picked around him 2008 redraft
| 224 | Stevie Johnson | redraft #40 |
| 225 | Brandon Keith | redraft #129 |
| 226 | Chaz Schilens | redraft #135 |
| 228 | Chris Chamberlain | redraft #109 |
| 229 | Cary Williams | redraft #50 |
| 230 | King Dunlap | redraft #44 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.