Paul Kruger
DE, Utah · 2009 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #57 (BAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 114 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2009 through 2016 (~89%). Last NFL season: 2016.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #36 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#57).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Utah: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.79 40-yard dash at 263 lbs: faster than 70% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 114 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 29 |
| Defense | 145 tackles, 35 sacks, 2 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
The 2009 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2009 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 263 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.79 s |
| Bench press | 24 reps |
| Vertical | 32.5" |
| Broad jump | 108" |
| 3-cone | 7.52 s |
| Shuttle | 4.47 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #36 overall (#4 DE) |
Picked around him 2009 redraft
| 54 | Phil Loadholt | redraft #39 |
| 55 | William Moore | redraft #53 |
| 56 | Fili Moala | redraft #83 |
| 58 | Sebastian Vollmer | redraft #16 |
| 59 | Sherrod Martin | redraft #94 |
| 60 | Will Beatty | redraft #52 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.