Pat McAfee
K, West Virginia · 2009 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #222 (IND)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age, position, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #186 overall (#1 at his position), but he lasted until pick #222: teams let him slide 36 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
K (ST group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68% of the time (97 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 127 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2009 through 2016 (~99%). Last NFL season: 2016.
- School
West Virginia: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
No NFL Combine invite on record (nflverse combine data), so teams had less verified testing on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 49% of the time (905 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 127 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 2 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 18 |
| Passing | 1/2, 35 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 2 att, 18 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 21 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
The 2009 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2009 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position ST | 68.0% n=97 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Combine No Combine invite | 49.0% n=905 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 228 lbs |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #186 overall (#1 K) |
Picked around him 2009 redraft
| 219 | Curtis Taylor | redraft #208 |
| 220 | Ellis Lankster | redraft #143 |
| 221 | Eddie Williams | redraft #218 |
| 223 | Troy Nolan | redraft #135 |
| 224 | Demetrius Byrd | redraft #249 |
| 225 | Blake Schlueter | redraft #250 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.