Ovie Mughelli
FB, Wake Forest · 2003 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #134 (BAL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a risk: his profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Wake Forest: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.73 40-yard dash at 255 lbs: faster than 8% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
FB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 107 of ~144 possible regular-season games from 2003 through 2011 (~74%). Last NFL season: 2011.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 107 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 6 |
| Rushing | 42 att, 120 yds, 1 TD |
| Receiving | 62 rec, 490 yds, 6 TD |
| Defense | 45 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2011 |
The 2003 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2003 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 255 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.73 s |
| Vertical | 31.5" |
| Broad jump | 114" |
| 3-cone | 7.78 s |
| Shuttle | 4.32 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
Picked around him 2003 redraft
| 131 | Jamaal Green | redraft #196 |
| 132 | LaBrandon Toefield | redraft #151 |
| 133 | Austin King | redraft #169 |
| 135 | Solomon Bates | redraft #175 |
| 136 | Khalid Abdullah | redraft #189 |
| 137 | Terrence Holt | redraft #92 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.