Onterrio Smith
RB, Oregon · 2003 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #105 (MIN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- School
Oregon: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.48 40-yard dash at 220 lbs: faster than 65% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 26 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2003 through 2004 (~81%). Last NFL season: 2004.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 26 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 14 |
| Rushing | 231 att, 1,123 yds, 7 TD |
| Receiving | 51 rec, 523 yds, 2 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2004 |
The 2003 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2003 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 220 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.48 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| Age at draft | 22 |
Picked around him 2003 redraft
| 102 | Montrae Holland | redraft #62 |
| 103 | Bradie James | redraft #25 |
| 104 | George Wrighster | redraft #127 |
| 106 | Shaun McDonald | redraft #87 |
| 107 | DeJuan Groce | redraft #123 |
| 108 | Quentin Griffin | redraft #142 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.