Noah Herron
RB, Northwestern · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #244 (PIT)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #227 (#22 at his position), close to where he went (#244). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Northwestern: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.60 40-yard dash at 224 lbs: faster than 27% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 23 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2006 (~72%). Last NFL season: 2006.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 23 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 3 |
| Rushing | 85 att, 273 yds, 3 TD |
| Receiving | 29 rec, 211 yds, 2 TD |
| Defense | 10 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2006 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 224 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.60 s |
| Bench press | 17 reps |
| Vertical | 31" |
| Broad jump | 108" |
| 3-cone | 6.95 s |
| Shuttle | 3.97 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #227 overall (#22 RB) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 241 | Darrell Shropshire | redraft #166 |
| 242 | Scott Mruczkowski | redraft #98 |
| 243 | Anthony Davis | redraft #251 |
| 245 | Kurt Campbell | redraft #252 |
| 246 | Will Whitticker | redraft #139 |
| 247 | Keyonta Marshall | redraft #221 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.