Nick O'Leary
TE, Florida St. · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #194 (BUF)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #143 overall (#6 at his position), but he lasted until pick #194: teams let him slide 51 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Florida St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.93 40-yard dash at 252 lbs: faster than 5% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 59 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2019 (~74%). Last NFL season: 2019.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 59 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 6 |
| Receiving | 53 rec, 668 yds, 4 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 252 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.93 s |
| Bench press | 21 reps |
| Vertical | 30.5" |
| Broad jump | 110" |
| 3-cone | 7.4 s |
| Shuttle | 4.5 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #143 overall (#6 TE) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 191 | JaCorey Shepherd | redraft #202 |
| 192 | Darius Philon | redraft #99 |
| 193 | B.J. Dubose | redraft #243 |
| 195 | Malcolm Johnson | redraft #207 |
| 196 | Randall Evans | redraft #227 |
| 197 | Derron Smith | redraft #167 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.