Nathaniel Watson
LB, Mississippi St. · 2024 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #206 (CLE)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, position. Details below.
The 2024 class is only 2 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #121 overall (#9 at his position), but he lasted until pick #206: teams let him slide 85 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Mississippi St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.63 40-yard dash at 233 lbs: faster than 60% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 14 of ~34 possible regular-season games from 2024 through 2025 (~41%). Plus 2 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 16 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 1.1 |
| Defense | 11 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2024 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2024 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 233 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.63 s |
| Vertical | 31" |
| Broad jump | 111" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #121 overall (#9 LB) |
Picked around him 2024 redraft
| 203 | Will Reichard | redraft #79 |
| 204 | Tylan Grable | redraft #150 |
| 205 | Jawhar Jordan | redraft #178 |
| 207 | Michael Jerrell | redraft #149 |
| 208 | Dylan Laube | redraft #204 |
| 209 | Joshua Karty | redraft #161 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.