Nate Orchard
DE, Utah · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #51 (CLE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 48 of ~113 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2021 (~42%). Last NFL season: 2021.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #67 (#7 at his position), close to where he went (#51).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Utah: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.80 40-yard dash at 250 lbs: faster than 69% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 48 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 8 |
| Defense | 51 tackles, 6 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 250 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.80 s |
| Vertical | 31.5" |
| Broad jump | 115" |
| 3-cone | 7.28 s |
| Shuttle | 4.43 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #67 overall (#7 DE) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 48 | Denzel Perryman | redraft #27 |
| 49 | Mitch Morse | redraft #16 |
| 50 | Ronald Darby | redraft #48 |
| 52 | Jordan Phillips | redraft #55 |
| 53 | Jake Fisher | redraft #115 |
| 54 | Ameer Abdullah | redraft #70 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.