Nahshon Wright
DB, Oregon St. · 2021 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #99 (DAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #272 (#34 at his position); he went #99, 173 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oregon St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.46 40-yard dash at 183 lbs: faster than 61% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 49 of ~85 possible regular-season games from 2021 through 2025 (~58%). Plus 3 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 52 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 11 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 11.0 |
| Defense | 82 tackles, 0 sacks, 6 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 183 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.46 s |
| Bench press | 6 reps |
| Vertical | 31" |
| Broad jump | 126" |
| 3-cone | 7.24 s |
| Shuttle | 4.57 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.88" / 9.13" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #272 overall (#34 DB) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 96 | Ronnie Perkins | redraft #223 |
| 97 | Tre' McKitty | redraft #196 |
| 98 | Quinn Meinerz | redraft #15 |
| 100 | Elijah Molden | redraft #73 |
| 101 | Ifeatu Melifonwu | redraft #112 |
| 102 | Ambry Thomas | redraft #141 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.