Musa Smith
RB, Georgia · 2003 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #77 (BAL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a risk: his profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Georgia: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.45 40-yard dash at 232 lbs: faster than 76% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 49 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2003 through 2007 (~61%). Last NFL season: 2007.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 49 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 6 |
| Rushing | 132 att, 496 yds, 4 TD |
| Receiving | 54 rec, 363 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 23 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2007 |
The 2003 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2003 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 232 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.45 s |
| Vertical | 35.5" |
| Broad jump | 123" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
Picked around him 2003 redraft
| 74 | Kevin Curtis | redraft #67 |
| 75 | Seth Wand | redraft #121 |
| 76 | Mike Seidman | redraft #184 |
| 78 | Wade Smith | redraft #39 |
| 79 | Kenny Peterson | redraft #120 |
| 80 | Courtney Van Buren | redraft #164 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.