Morgan Moses
OL, Virginia · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #66 (WAS)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, position, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #16 overall (#5 at his position), but he lasted until pick #66: teams let him slide 50 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
OL (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 189 of ~197 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2025 (career total from PFR, which may already include some 2026 games) (~96%).
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Virginia: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.35 40-yard dash at 314 lbs: faster than 18% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 189 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 11 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 65 |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 314 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.35 s |
| Vertical | 21.5" |
| Broad jump | 106" |
| 3-cone | 7.93 s |
| Shuttle | 4.95 s |
| Arm / hand | 35.3" / 9.7" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #16 overall (#5 OL) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 63 | Jarvis Landry | redraft #19 |
| 64 | Justin Britt | redraft #32 |
| 65 | C.J. Fiedorowicz | redraft #138 |
| 67 | Billy Turner | redraft #42 |
| 68 | Dezmen Southward | redraft #193 |
| 69 | Charles Sims | redraft #100 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.