Mitchell Trubisky
QB, North Carolina · 2017 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #2 (CHI)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 82 of ~149 possible regular-season games from 2017 through 2025 (~55%).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #27 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#2).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
North Carolina: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.67 40-yard dash at 222 lbs: faster than 77% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 82 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 40 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 40.0 |
| Passing | 1244/1933, 13,028 yds, 78 TD, 48 INT |
| Rushing | 264 att, 1,180 yds, 13 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2025 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2017 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2017 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 222 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.67 s |
| Vertical | 27.5" |
| Broad jump | 116" |
| 3-cone | 6.87 s |
| Shuttle | 4.25 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #27 overall (#1 QB) |
Picked around him 2017 redraft
| 1 | Myles Garrett | redraft #2 |
| 3 | Solomon Thomas | redraft #85 |
| 4 | Leonard Fournette | redraft #42 |
| 5 | Corey Davis | redraft #55 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.