Mitchell Evans
TE, Notre Dame · 2025 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #163 (CAR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age, availability. Details below.
The 2025 class is only 1 season in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #97 overall (#8 at his position), but he lasted until pick #163: teams let him slide 66 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 16 of ~17 possible regular-season games from 2025 through 2025 (~94%). Plus 6 games so far in 2026.
- School
Notre Dame: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.74 40-yard dash at 258 lbs: faster than 46% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 22 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.4 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 3.4 |
| Rushing | 2 att, 2 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 25 rec, 237 yds, 2 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2025 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2025 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 258 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.74 s |
| Vertical | 31" |
| Broad jump | 115" |
| 3-cone | 7.25 s |
| Shuttle | 4.4 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #97 overall (#8 TE) |
Picked around him 2025 redraft
| 160 | Marques Sigle | redraft #67 |
| 161 | Smael Mondon | redraft #165 |
| 162 | Francisco Mauigoa | redraft #115 |
| 164 | Yahya Black | redraft #97 |
| 165 | Oronde Gadsden II | redraft #35 |
| 166 | Tory Horton | redraft #120 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.