Milton Williams
DL, Louisiana Tech · 2021 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #73 (PHI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 78 of ~85 possible regular-season games from 2021 through 2025 (~92%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #80 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#73). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Louisiana Tech: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.67 40-yard dash at 284 lbs: faster than 88% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DL (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 85 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 17 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 19.2 |
| Defense | 89 tackles, 16 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 284 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.67 s |
| Bench press | 34 reps |
| Vertical | 38.5" |
| Broad jump | 121" |
| 3-cone | 6.96 s |
| Shuttle | 4.33 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.5" / 9.75" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #80 overall (#4 DL) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 70 | Brady Christensen | redraft #88 |
| 71 | Aaron Robinson | redraft #183 |
| 72 | Alim McNeill | redraft #44 |
| 74 | Benjamin St-Juste | redraft #87 |
| 75 | Osa Odighizuwa | redraft #24 |
| 76 | Paulson Adebo | redraft #56 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.