Mike Thomas
WR, Arizona · 2009 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #107 (JAX)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 61 of ~64 possible regular-season games from 2009 through 2012 (~95%). Last NFL season: 2012.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #89 (#12 at his position), close to where he went (#107). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Arizona: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.30 40-yard dash at 195 lbs: faster than 98% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 61 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 21 |
| Rushing | 34 att, 268 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 176 rec, 1,796 yds, 7 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2012 |
The 2009 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2009 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 8", 195 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.30 s |
| Vertical | 40.5" |
| Broad jump | 126" |
| 3-cone | 6.65 s |
| Shuttle | 4.28 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #89 overall (#12 WR) |
Picked around him 2009 redraft
| 104 | Kaluka Maiava | redraft #102 |
| 105 | Henry Melton | redraft #65 |
| 106 | Jonathan Luigs | redraft #189 |
| 108 | Brian Hartline | redraft #48 |
| 109 | T.J. Lang | redraft #8 |
| 110 | Victor Butler | redraft #130 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.