Mike Kafka
QB, Northwestern · 2010 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #122 (PHI)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 4 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2010 through 2011 (~13%). Last NFL season: 2011.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Northwestern: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.93 40-yard dash at 225 lbs: faster than 19% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 4 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Passing | 11/16, 107 yds, undefined TD, 2 INT |
| Rushing | 3 att, 0 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2011 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 225 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.93 s |
| Vertical | 32" |
| Broad jump | 110" |
| 3-cone | 6.96 s |
| Shuttle | 4.37 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.4" / 9.3" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 119 | A.J. Edds | redraft #206 |
| 120 | Geno Atkins | redraft #4 |
| 121 | Keenan Clayton | redraft #162 |
| 123 | Al Woods | redraft #48 |
| 124 | Eric Norwood | redraft #172 |
| 125 | Clay Harbor | redraft #137 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.