Michael Penix
QB, Washington · 2024 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #8 (ATL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, age, position, availability. Details below.
The 2024 class is only 2 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #43 (#6 at his position); he went #8, 35 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 13 of ~34 possible regular-season games from 2024 through 2025 (~38%). Plus 5 games so far in 2026.
- School
Washington: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
Invited to the Combine but no 40 time on record (skipped or injured).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (4,704 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 18 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 8 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 10.2 |
| Passing | 298/491, 3,701 yds, 18 TD, 7 INT |
| Rushing | 35 att, 86 yds, 2 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2024 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2024 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Combine Invited to the Combine | 50.6% n=4,704 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 216 lbs |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #43 overall (#6 QB) |
Picked around him 2024 redraft
| 5 | Joe Alt | redraft #32 |
| 6 | Malik Nabers | redraft #28 |
| 7 | JC Latham | redraft #30 |
| 9 | Rome Odunze | redraft #25 |
| 10 | J.J. McCarthy | redraft #113 |
| 11 | Olu Fashanu | redraft #33 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.